Trudeau says he won't quit after stunning byelection loss; says voters are 'frustrated' (2024)

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday he is taking his party’s unexpected loss in a Toronto byelection Monday as a clear sign of voters’ frustrations, but insisted he won’t be leaving the party leadership.

Trudeau’s Liberals lost the byelection Monday in Toronto—St-Paul’s, a riding they have comfortably held for over 30 years.

At an event in Vancouver, Trudeau congratulated the new Toronto—St. Paul’s MP, Conservative Don Stewart, for the “tightly fought race” and commended his Liberal candidate, Leslie Church, for running a “strong, positive campaign.”

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“Now, this was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations. These are not easy times, and it’s clear that I and my entire Liberal team have much more work to do to deliver tangible, real progress,” he said.

“Canadians across the country can see and feel we’ll never stop working and fighting to make sure people have what they need to get through these tough times. My focus is on your success, and that’s where it’s going to stay,” he added.

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was asked several times by reporters at an earlier press conference in Toronto on Tuesday whether Trudeau can stay on as leader despite losing one of the safest seats in the country. She said “yes, he certainly can.”

Veteran Liberal MP Judy Sgro had campaigned for Church in the riding. On Tuesday, she looked back and said a win in Toronto—St. Paul’s would have been “nothing short of a miracle” given what she had been hearing on doorsteps. But she also said Trudeau should stay on as leader, believing he is still the best shot the Liberals have.

“For me, it was going to be a shock if we won,” Sgro said in an interview on Tuesday, adding that many of her caucus colleagues who, like her, had knocked on doors and spoken to voters had the “same concern.” However several Liberal MPs had expressed confidence they would win prior to the byelection.

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Toronto MP John McKay said there is no question the prime minister’s popularity was a factor in the St. Paul’s campaign, but said Trudeau will leave only when he is ready.

“That’s entirely up to him,” McKay said.

McKay said the race was close and Church could have scored a victory but was facing a number of strong headwinds.

“I think it was winnable. The margin is not huge,” he said.

A senior staffer in the prime minister’s office said the result was not surprising but was certainly not what the party had hoped for. The staffer, not authorized to publicly discuss the results, only agreed to speak on condition of anonymity.

The staffer said the 14,965 votes Church received would ordinarily have been enough to win the riding, but the Conservatives were able to bring out a significant number of their own voters. The 15,555 voters the Conservatives attracted was more than they brought out in the 2021 or 2019 election.

The staffer said it was clear voters in the riding are upset about housing and cost of living and blame the government for not doing more.

“People in St. Paul’s wanted to send a message,” the staffer said. “Message received.”

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The result is also a wake-up to any Liberal staffers, MPs and volunteers who may have hoped the situation would turn around on its own, the insider added, noting it would be “hard, grinding, work” to turn things around.

Church was ahead throughout most of the vote count, narrowing in the early hours of Tuesday. The voting took far longer than usual, which Elections Canada said was due to an excessively long list of names on the ballot, orchestrated by a voting-reform protest group.

Conservative Don Stewart ultimately won with 15,555 votes or 42.1 per cent to Church’s 14,965 votes or 40.5 per cent of ballots cast, a difference of just 590 votes. The NDP garnered about 11 per cent of the vote.

Sgro said this byelection gave voters an opportunity to vent “against everything,” whether it was the capital gains tax or the Liberals’ stance on the Israel-Hamas war.

“I think there were many people that wanted to see, I think, a stronger position on that whole Palestinian-Israeli conflict,” she said. “No one likes to see thousands of people being killed anywhere. They just felt we weren’t taking a strong enough position.”

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“So, if you look at it all, you’ve got inflation, cost of living, the housing issue, all of these issues, and this was a chance for people to send a message.”

McKay, a veteran MP who recently announced his retirement, said Church was a good candidate, but she was up against a difficult set of circ*mstances. The St. Paul’s riding is 15-per-cent Jewish and he said he believes the party lost votes because of its position on the ongoing conflict.

“This is a significantly Jewish riding and in some respects this was a bit of a referendum on our position on Gaza and Israel and in a low turnout election, a smaller number of people, highly motivated to express their views can flip the result,” he said.

Voter turnout in the election was 42 per cent, higher than recent byelections, but lower than a general election turnout.

Church, who previously served as Freeland’s chief of staff, issued a statement on the social media site X. She said she fully intends to run for the party again in next year’s general election and congratulated Stewart on his victory.

“Yesterday, voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s sent us a clear message, that they want us to re-earn their trust. I hear that message loud and clear and that’s exactly what we plan to do,” she said.

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“We heard from many people who were having a hard time. They want a government that fulfills its promise to be there for them. That does not mean we give up, it does not mean we walk away. It means we must deliver more action on their priorities.”

Stewart also posted on the social media site X, thanking his volunteers and saying he is eager to get to work.

“The results sent Justin Trudeau a loud and clear message: He is not worth the cost,” Stewart wrote. “Pierre Poilievre has a common sense plan that is resonating in every corner of the country, including right here in the heart of Toronto.”

Toronto-St. Paul’s has been in the Liberal party’s win column since 1993. Outgoing MP Carolyn Bennett, whose retirement prompted the byelection, routinely won the riding with margins of more than 25 per cent.

Even during the Liberals’ worst-ever election in 2011, when the party was reduced to 34 seats nationally, the party held onto the riding.

Despite the loss of the Liberal stronghold, which sent shockwaves through Liberal circles, Sgro said she does not think that Trudeau should step down.

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“I, for one, think that Justin absolutely should stay,” she said.

“There’s no better campaigner, there’s no more sincere person than Justin Trudeau, and I think he’s done a tremendous amount for the country. It may not please everybody, but that’s politics,” she said.

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